Bounded Rationality and Climate Change

Vabbinfaru Island Maldives

In systems thinking bounded rationality is when people make decisions using the information they have to work with.  The information available is usually incomplete and delayed in its reception.  We must attempt to escape the narrow minded focus that comes with paying too much attention to current events instead of looking at the long-term behavior of a system.  Objectivity and farsightedness are helpful tools in recognizing and understanding the more distant parts of a system as a whole.  At that point we can consider the inter-system relationships emerging from the nested character of many systems working together.

While considering the concept of bounded rationality I will apply it to my original system of addressing the effects of Climate Change on the Maldives and the action being pledged by the rest of the world to prevent this threat.  It is a good example, I think, to consider the complacency of the rest of the world compared to the fervent action by the nation of the Maldives to mitigate the rising sea levels of the world which is already threatening their livelihood and national legacy as a people.  Their entire footing as a society lies on these islands which are only a couple of feet above sea level.  Other nations have land that will not be flooded to the point of a mass and total exodus.  The widely accepted estimate of tolerant sea level rise without losing their natural habitat would be reflected by a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius which we have already surpassed in estimates to be 1.7 degrees Celsius.  At the current trends we are on track to ultimately reach an increase in global temperatures by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius or even higher.  This amount of temperature increase will undoubtedly inundate the Maldives with a considerable rise in sea levels while wiping out the island nation and its cultural heritage with it.

The bounded rationality of most of the world at this point considering Climate Change is understandable but true to its nature naive and near sighted.  The Maldives are already being eroded by shifting weather patterns and their connection to the seas for a way of life and sustenance is threatened by much lower yields from their traditional fishing waters.  Climate Change and its effects has already motivated the Maldives to attempt becoming carbon neutral by 2017.  They are in the process of building sea walls around the most valuable islands in an attempt to choose and save their most valuable place based existence.  These threats which are still theories to much of the world are already a reality to the Maldivian people.  Most people in the world do not see an immediate threat from Climate Change and are reluctant to make expedient changes and sacrifices in order to mitigate a coming world-wide crisis.  There are still debates about the accuracy and validity of Climate Change among some people while others like the Maldivians are already in the throes of its grip.

This complacency is congruent with bounded rationality in that the effects of Climate Change on most of the world are out of sight and, therefore, out of mind.  Bounded rationality supports the views of the doubters of inland dwellers within the parameters of looking outside and seeing or feeling no immediate or foreseeable threat to their existence or well being.  Even if proper consideration is applied to this global threat so obvious to many, it does not induce immediate action and self preservation to most inland dwellers because of the feedback delays inherent in the biosphere which are masking the ramifications of this probable global ebullition, unless we heed the recognition of the prophetic Maldivians.

Here is the "Naional Adaptation Program of Action" for the Republic of Maldives by the Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water, 2007 for some additional information:
 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/mdv01.pdf